Ligue 1 market values: David on the up - PSG stars including Messi & Neymar downgraded

In Lionel Messi and Neymar, Paris Saint-Germain have two of the biggest losers of the Ligue 1 market value update in their ranks, but also one of the biggest winners in homegrown Warren Zaïre-Emery. Among the 146 players upgraded and downgraded this time, six footballers can increase their market value by €10 million or more, including Arsenal loanee Folarin Balogun and Lille’s top scorer Jonathan David, both of whom are unlikely to remain in France beyond this season.

Currently, Ligue 1 has plenty of highlights away from Paris: for example, Monaco’s youth product Eliesse Ben Seghir, increased his market value by 8,900%. The attacking all-rounder climbs from €200,000 to €18m, securing the biggest upgrade of the update. “His rise since his debut at the end of December has been meteoric,” Ronan Caroff, Area Manager Transfermarkt France, said. “At 18, he’s already ahead of Kevin Volland and Myron Boadu in Monaco’s attack. Now it’s a matter of confirming those performances.”

Ligue 1 market values: Arsenal loanee Balogun among winners

Meanwhile, an Arsenal loanee is on course for a record: Balogun scored 17 goals in 27 Ligue 1 games for Stade Reims, rising from €14m to €25m - never before has a loan player in France found the back of the net more often. The Gunners are also pleased with his performances since he is still under contract in North London until 2025. “He has been the discovery of the season so far,” Caroff said. “His new market value now reflects that, as does the fact that he will soon be playing for a Champions League club whose young players have high market value potential.”

That has also been true for many players at LOSC Lille in recent years. The 2021 champions have earned a reputation as a stepping stone: Nicolas Pépé, Victor Osimhen and Sven Botman were sold for more than €190m, and the next big transfer windfall is likely to come when Canadian striker David will leave the club. The 23-year-old rises from €45m to €60m.

“David is playing his strongest season at Lille and already has 21 goals after 30 games,” Caroff said. “That’s two more than last year after 48 games. With a contract that runs until 2025, next summer is the right time to take the next step and we know what excellent negotiators Lille officials are. David has many strengths that have also distinguished Osimhen and Pépé.”

Next market value minus for PSG: Neymar, Messi & Co. drop

Kylian Mbappé has scored as many goals as David in Ligue 1 so far this season, confirming his status as the world’s most valuable player at €180m. Meanwhile, at PSG there are also four market value winners and seven losers, including Neymar (-€5m to €70m), who receives the seventh downgrade since 2019, and Messi (-€5m to €45m), for whom it is the tenth minus since 2018.

“Despite good numbers, it can’t be a season to Messi’s liking at club level,” Caroff said. “In the Champions League, PSG went out against Bayern and in the cup they failed to overcome Marseille. Messi also struggled to perform in many big games. The fact that he will turn 36 in the summer also plays a role in the downgrade, his contract is expiring and the signs are not necessarily pointing to an extension.” With his new market value, Messi remains the most valuable footballer beyond the age of 32.

In PSG’s midfield, new signings Fabián Ruiz (-€7m to €38m), Vitinha (-€3m to €42m), Carlos Soler (-€5m to €30m) and Renato Sanches (-€5m to €20m) have all failed to fully convince. Meanwhile, youth product Warren Zaïre-Emery is able to triple his market value. The 17-year-old midfielder rises to €18m.

After the update: Zaïre-Emery among three most valuable players under 18

“PSG youngsters don’t get game time too often and leave the club to take the next steps at a different club,” Caroff said. “That’s not the case with Zaïre-Emery. He has confirmed his great potential in his appearances recently and will certainly play an even bigger role next season.” Zaïre-Emery is one of the three most valuable players aged 17 or younger after the update.

How Transfermarkt market values work

The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees. 

The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).